← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1516

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Cub SwansonvsBilly QuarantilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · Saturday, December 14, 2024Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:36

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsBilly Quarantillo: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cub Swanson has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Billy Quarantillo

Blue Corner

+124

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1516

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub Swanson

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Dec 21

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Billy Quarantillo

oldest →

vs Shane Burgos · Nov 21

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

KOvs Edson Barboza · Apr 23

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricBilly Quarantillo

4.84

Strikes / min

7.44

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

59%

Strike defense

42%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.47

63%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonBilly Quarantillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.6|Blue -22.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetBilly Quarantillo

By target zone

58% acc · 75%

Head

35% acc · 67%

72% acc · 13%

Body

63% acc · 21%

92% acc · 12%

Leg

71% acc · 12%

By position

62% acc · 96%

Distance

41% acc · 94%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Billy Quarantillo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Billy Quarantillo edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:09

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 158

Sig Strikes

97 / 237

62.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

114 / 173

Total Strikes

108 / 249

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 11

—

TD %

24.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Billy Quarantillo	37 / 88	37 / 88	1 / 3
1	Cub Swanson	39 / 57	40 / 58	0 / 0
2	Billy Quarantillo	38 / 105	49 / 117	2 / 5
2	Cub Swanson	40 / 69	54 / 83	0 / 0
3	Billy Quarantillo	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 3
3	Cub Swanson	20 / 32	20 / 32	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11