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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1516
Cub Swanson
Elo1368

Cub SwansonvsArtem LobovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsArtem Lobov: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Artem Lobov (53.5%).
  • Cub Swanson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson
Red Corner
VS
Artem Lobov
Blue Corner
-600
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
1516
Elo
1368
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22
W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23
L
vs Andre Fili · Jun 24
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26
latest
Artem LobovL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alex White · Feb 16
W
vs Chris Avila · Aug 16
W
vs Teruto Ishihara · Nov 16
L
vs Andre Fili · Oct 17
L
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricArtem Lobov
4.84
Strikes / min
3.52
3.99
Strikes absorbed / min
4.82
59%
Strike defense
50%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
0.39
63%
Takedown defense
52%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1501Strikes54.2 vs 40.0Takedowns0.8 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.17 vs 0.00Form0.8 vs 0.4
Cub SwansonArtem Lobov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Cub Swanson(10 fights)Artem Lobov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +147.5|Blue -147.5
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetArtem Lobov

By target zone

114
60% acc · 55%
Head
79
39% acc · 64%
47
85% acc · 22%
Body
17
49% acc · 14%
48
94% acc · 23%
Leg
27
75% acc · 22%

By position

171
69% acc · 82%
Distance
117
45% acc · 95%
29
76% acc · 14%
Clinch
5
33% acc · 4%
9
90% acc · 4%
Ground
1
100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Cub Swanson rounds
0
even
1
Artem Lobov rounds
Round 1Artem Lobov edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:42Control
Round 2Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns1
Control1:28
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes63
Takedowns0
Control0:08
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 4Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 5Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns1
Control0:47
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
209 / 296
Sig Strikes
123 / 276
68.6%
Sig Str %
45.4%
251 / 344
Total Strikes
134 / 290
2 / 3
TDs
2 / 8
66.7%
TD %
40%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:23
Ctrl Time
1:48

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Artem Lobov29 / 5233 / 571 / 10
1Cub Swanson23 / 4025 / 420 / 10
2Artem Lobov22 / 4028 / 460 / 20
2Cub Swanson37 / 5149 / 661 / 10
3Artem Lobov24 / 6824 / 681 / 10
3Cub Swanson63 / 7763 / 770 / 00
4Cub Swanson44 / 6455 / 760 / 00
4Artem Lobov27 / 6127 / 610 / 20
5Artem Lobov21 / 5522 / 580 / 20
5Cub Swanson42 / 6459 / 831 / 10

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights25

Artem Lobov

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7