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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Andre Fili won · S-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1479

Cub SwansonvsAndre FiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Fili won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsAndre Fili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Andre Fili wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Andre Fili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Fili at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cub Swanson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Andre Fili has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Andre Fili

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-238

(70%)

1516

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Dec 21

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Andre FiliL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 24

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricAndre Fili

4.84

Strikes / min

3.88

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

59%

Strike defense

50%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

2.32

63%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonAndre Fili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Andre Fili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.6|Blue -36.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetAndre Fili

By target zone

50% acc · 69%

Head

42% acc · 73%

64% acc · 11%

Body

59% acc · 19%

86% acc · 19%

Leg

71% acc · 7%

By position

52% acc · 85%

Distance

41% acc · 78%

90% acc · 15%

Clinch

71% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Andre Fili rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:07

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:19

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 3Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:03

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 111

Sig Strikes

67 / 147

54.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

90 / 140

Total Strikes

70 / 151

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 11

TD %

13.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

3:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andre Fili	18 / 42	19 / 43	0 / 1
1	Cub Swanson	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0
2	Andre Fili	18 / 35	18 / 35	1 / 4
2	Cub Swanson	12 / 29	22 / 39	0 / 2
3	Andre Fili	31 / 70	33 / 73	1 / 6
3	Cub Swanson	30 / 51	48 / 70	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights26