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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sam Sicilia won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1359

Cristiano MarcellovsSam SiciliaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sam Sicilia won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:53

Model Prediction: Cristiano Marcello wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Sam Sicilia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cristiano Marcello at +177 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Sicilia has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cristiano Marcello has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cristiano Marcello

Red Corner

Sam Sicilia

Blue Corner

+177

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-192

(66%)

1353

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cristiano MarcelloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Reza Madadi · Oct 12

vs Kazuki Tokudome · Mar 13

vs Joe Proctor · Feb 14

latest

Sam SiciliaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15

vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16

vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cristiano MarcelloMetricSam Sicilia

2.56

Strikes / min

2.46

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

58%

Strike defense

59%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.45

20%

Takedown defense

70%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-1.09

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cristiano Marcello(4 fights)Sam Sicilia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.5|Blue +6.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cristiano MarcelloTargetSam Sicilia

By target zone

40% acc · 82%

Head

28% acc · 70%

67% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 30%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

0% acc

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 70%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

73% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cristiano Marcello rounds

even

Sam Sicilia rounds

Round 1Cristiano Marcello edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:05

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 90

Sig Strikes

33 / 93

41.5%

Sig Str %

35%

39 / 92

Total Strikes

42 / 103

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Sicilia	7 / 47	9 / 49	0 / 0
1	Cristiano Marcello	12 / 33	12 / 35	0 / 1
2	Sam Sicilia	26 / 46	33 / 54	0 / 0
2	Cristiano Marcello	27 / 57	27 / 57	0 / 1

Cristiano Marcello

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12