Lightweight

3 Rounds

Cristiano Marcello won · S-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1360

Cristiano MarcellovsReza MadadiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Cristiano Marcello won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Reza Madadi wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Cristiano Marcello wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Reza Madadi at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cristiano Marcello enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Reza Madadi has 69pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cristiano Marcello

Red Corner

Reza Madadi

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1353

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cristiano MarcelloL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sam Sicilia · Jun 12

vs Kazuki Tokudome · Mar 13

vs Joe Proctor · Feb 14

latest

Reza MadadiL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Johnson · Apr 13

vs Norman Parke · Oct 15

KOvs Yan Cabral · May 16

vs Joe Duffy · Mar 17

vs Joaquim Silva · May 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cristiano MarcelloMetricReza Madadi

2.56

Strikes / min

2.51

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

58%

Strike defense

66%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

3.17

20%

Takedown defense

89%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cristiano MarcelloReza Madadi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cristiano Marcello(4 fights)Reza Madadi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.6|Blue +7.6

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cristiano MarcelloTargetReza Madadi

By target zone

25% acc · 72%

Head

50% acc · 91%

50% acc · 17%

Body

63% acc · 6%

67% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 3%

By position

30% acc · 94%

Distance

49% acc · 83%

40% acc · 6%

Clinch

65% acc · 17%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cristiano Marcello rounds

even

Reza Madadi rounds

Round 1Reza Madadi edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Reza Madadi edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 241

Sig Strikes

77 / 151

28.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

77 / 251

Total Strikes

88 / 163

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Reza Madadi	13 / 35	14 / 36	1 / 1
1	Cristiano Marcello	13 / 67	14 / 70	0 / 0
2	Reza Madadi	35 / 65	41 / 71	1 / 2
2	Cristiano Marcello	27 / 79	30 / 84	0 / 0
3	Reza Madadi	29 / 51	33 / 56	1 / 1
3	Cristiano Marcello	32 / 95	33 / 97	0 / 1

Cristiano Marcello

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Reza Madadi

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7