Lightweight

3 Rounds

Kazuki Tokudome won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1354

Cristiano MarcellovsKazuki TokudomeUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · Saturday, March 2, 2013Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Kazuki Tokudome won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cristiano Marcello wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Kazuki Tokudome wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cristiano Marcello at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kazuki Tokudome enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kazuki Tokudome has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kazuki Tokudome (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cristiano Marcello

Red Corner

Kazuki Tokudome

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1353

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cristiano Marcello

oldest →

KOvs Sam Sicilia · Jun 12

vs Reza Madadi · Oct 12

vs Joe Proctor · Feb 14

latest

Kazuki TokudomeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Norman Parke · Jul 13

vs Yui Chul Nam · Mar 14

SUBvs Johnny Case · Sep 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cristiano MarcelloMetricKazuki Tokudome

2.56

Strikes / min

2.26

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

58%

Strike defense

53%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

2.00

20%

Takedown defense

78%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cristiano MarcelloKazuki Tokudome

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cristiano Marcello(4 fights)Kazuki Tokudome(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.7|Blue +48.7

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cristiano MarcelloTargetKazuki Tokudome

By target zone

37% acc · 64%

Head

34% acc · 61%

64% acc · 21%

Body

80% acc · 24%

63% acc · 15%

Leg

56% acc · 15%

By position

38% acc · 73%

Distance

44% acc · 67%

73% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

33% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cristiano Marcello rounds

even

Kazuki Tokudome rounds

Round 1Kazuki Tokudome edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 2Kazuki Tokudome edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:29

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 3Kazuki Tokudome edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:25

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:39Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 76

Sig Strikes

33 / 77

42%

Sig Str %

43%

67 / 117

Total Strikes

90 / 178

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 2

16.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

8:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kazuki Tokudome	14 / 27	40 / 64	0 / 0
1	Cristiano Marcello	15 / 29	27 / 44	0 / 0
2	Kazuki Tokudome	10 / 21	23 / 43	1 / 1
2	Cristiano Marcello	7 / 23	14 / 33	1 / 3
3	Kazuki Tokudome	9 / 29	27 / 71	1 / 1
3	Cristiano Marcello	11 / 24	26 / 40	0 / 1

Cristiano Marcello

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Kazuki Tokudome

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4