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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Proctor won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1360

Cristiano MarcellovsJoe ProctorUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Joe Proctor won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joe Proctor wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Joe Proctor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Proctor at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Proctor has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cristiano Marcello

Red Corner

Joe Proctor

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1353

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cristiano Marcello

oldest →

KOvs Sam Sicilia · Jun 12

vs Reza Madadi · Oct 12

vs Kazuki Tokudome · Mar 13

latest

Joe ProctorL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Salas · Jul 14

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Dec 14

SUBvs Justin Edwards · Jun 15

KOvs Magomed Mustafaev · Dec 15

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cristiano MarcelloMetricJoe Proctor

2.56

Strikes / min

3.39

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

58%

Strike defense

59%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.00

20%

Takedown defense

70%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.05evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cristiano MarcelloJoe Proctor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cristiano Marcello(4 fights)Joe Proctor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.2|Blue +7.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cristiano MarcelloTargetJoe Proctor

By target zone

18% acc · 46%

Head

35% acc · 82%

35% acc · 27%

Body

67% acc · 9%

47% acc · 27%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

24% acc · 77%

Distance

35% acc · 82%

38% acc · 19%

Clinch

71% acc · 18%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cristiano Marcello rounds

even

Joe Proctor rounds

Round 1Cristiano Marcello edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:44

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Joe Proctor edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:39

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Joe Proctor edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 100

Sig Strikes

67 / 174

23.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

44 / 121

Total Strikes

72 / 182

1 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:23

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Proctor	4 / 12	5 / 15	0 / 0	1
1	Cristiano Marcello	2 / 11	18 / 29	1 / 3	1
2	Joe Proctor	27 / 69	28 / 71	0 / 0	0
2	Cristiano Marcello	9 / 35	11 / 38	0 / 3	0
3	Joe Proctor	36 / 93	39 / 96	0 / 0	0
3	Cristiano Marcello	15 / 54	15 / 54	0 / 4	0

Cristiano Marcello

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Joe Proctor

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8