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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raoni Barcelos won · SUB R3

Elo1511

Elo1550

Cristian QuinonezvsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Raoni Barcelos won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:04

Style matchupCristian Quinonez: WrestlervsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Raoni Barcelos wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Raoni Barcelos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raoni Barcelos at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Cristian Quinonez

Red Corner

Raoni Barcelos

Blue Corner

+136

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1511

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cristian Quinonez

oldest →

KOvs Khalid Taha · Sep 22

SUBvs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 23

vs Kris Moutinho · Feb 26

latest

Raoni BarcelosW4 streak

oldest →

vs Kyler Phillips · Aug 23

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cristian QuinonezMetricRaoni Barcelos

3.67

Strikes / min

4.65

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

56%

Strike defense

60%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

2.51

85%

Takedown defense

87%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cristian QuinonezRaoni Barcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cristian Quinonez(4 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.5|Blue +39.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cristian QuinonezTargetRaoni Barcelos

By target zone

25% acc · 59%

Head

48% acc · 60%

50% acc · 10%

Body

71% acc · 12%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

92% acc · 28%

By position

35% acc · 90%

Distance

56% acc · 88%

43% acc · 10%

Clinch

80% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cristian Quinonez rounds

even

Raoni Barcelos rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control3:13

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Raoni Barcelos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 82

Sig Strikes

43 / 74

36.3%

Sig Str %

66%

43 / 99

Total Strikes

48 / 81

2 / 7

TDs

2 / 12

16.5%

TD %

40%

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raoni Barcelos	12 / 16	13 / 18	1 / 5	0
1	Cristian Quinonez	4 / 20	17 / 35	2 / 6	0
2	Raoni Barcelos	20 / 44	22 / 46	0 / 6	1
2	Cristian Quinonez	18 / 49	19 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Raoni Barcelos	11 / 14	13 / 17	1 / 1	1
3	Cristian Quinonez	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0

Cristian Quinonez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15