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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cristian Quinonez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1511

Elo1453

Cristian QuinonezvsKris MoutinhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Cristian Quinonez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCristian Quinonez: WrestlervsKris Moutinho: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Cristian Quinonez wins(85.0%)

Actual result: Cristian Quinonez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cristian Quinonez at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kris Moutinho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cristian Quinonez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kris Moutinho has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Cristian Quinonez has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cristian Quinonez has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Kris Moutinho (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cristian Quinonez

Red Corner

Kris Moutinho

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1511

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cristian QuinonezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Khalid Taha · Sep 22

SUBvs Kyung Ho Kang · Jun 23

SUBvs Raoni Barcelos · Feb 24

latest

Kris MoutinhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jul 21

KOvs Guido Cannetti · Mar 22

KOvs Malcolm Wellmaker · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cristian QuinonezMetricKris Moutinho

3.67

Strikes / min

3.35

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

9.36

56%

Strike defense

30%

3.14

TDs / 15 min

0.00

85%

Takedown defense

30%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 5.97 — meaningful gap-6.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cristian QuinonezKris Moutinho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cristian Quinonez(4 fights)Kris Moutinho(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.9|Blue -57.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +476.0|Blue -476.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cristian QuinonezTargetKris Moutinho

By target zone

64% acc · 89%

Head

25% acc · 46%

50% acc · 11%

Body

64% acc · 25%

Leg

89% acc · 29%

By position

60% acc · 92%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cristian Quinonez rounds

even

Kris Moutinho rounds

Round 1Cristian Quinonez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:01

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cristian Quinonez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns4

Control4:05

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Cristian Quinonez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 61

Sig Strikes

28 / 71

62.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

54 / 80

Total Strikes

32 / 75

7 / 10

TDs

0 / 2

65.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:06

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kris Moutinho	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Cristian Quinonez	23 / 37	24 / 40	2 / 3	0
2	Kris Moutinho	7 / 14	7 / 14	0 / 1	0
2	Cristian Quinonez	8 / 11	20 / 23	4 / 5	2
3	Kris Moutinho	5 / 18	9 / 22	0 / 1	0
3	Cristian Quinonez	7 / 13	10 / 17	1 / 2	0

Cristian Quinonez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Kris Moutinho

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4