← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Court McGee won · SUB R1

Elo1493

Elo1492

Court McGeevsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Court McGee won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:19

Style matchupCourt McGee: Pressure fightervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Court McGee wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Court McGee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Court McGee enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Court McGee

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1493

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Court McGeeL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Jan 22

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25

latest

Tim Means

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 22

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Court McGeeMetricTim Means

4.50

Strikes / min

5.04

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

60%

Strike defense

60%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

1.14

70%

Takedown defense

64%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Court McGeeTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Court McGee(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Court McGeeTargetTim Means

By target zone

50% acc · 64%

Head

22% acc · 40%

75% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 40%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

64% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Court McGee rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:58

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 24

Sig Strikes

5 / 13

58%

Sig Str %

38%

19 / 35

Total Strikes

12 / 20

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Means	5 / 13	12 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Court McGee	14 / 24	19 / 35	1 / 1	1

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29