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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Santiago Ponzinibbio won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Court McGee
Elo1477
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Court McGeevsSantiago PonzinibbioUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Santiago Ponzinibbio won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupCourt McGee: Pressure fightervsSantiago Ponzinibbio: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Court McGee wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Santiago Ponzinibbio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Court McGee at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Court McGee
Red Corner
VS
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1493
Elo
1477
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Court McGee
oldest →
L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22
L
KOvs Matt Brown · May 23
L
vs Alex Morono · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25
latest
Santiago PonzinibbioL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Apr 23
L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 24
W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Jan 25
L
KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · May 25
L
KOvs Sam Patterson · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Court McGeeMetricSantiago Ponzinibbio
4.50
Strikes / min
4.78
3.65
Strikes absorbed / min
4.68
60%
Strike defense
61%
1.78
TDs / 15 min
0.60
70%
Takedown defense
71%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1546 vs 1519Strikes75.1 vs 33.2Takedowns2.0 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.56 vs 0.00Form0.7 vs 0.4
Court McGeeSantiago Ponzinibbio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Court McGee(10 fights)Santiago Ponzinibbio(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.6|Blue -15.6
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Court McGeeTargetSantiago Ponzinibbio

By target zone

26
33% acc · 74%
Head
34
52% acc · 89%
4
40% acc · 11%
Body
0
0% acc
5
71% acc · 14%
Leg
4
100% acc · 11%

By position

34
36% acc · 97%
Distance
31
53% acc · 82%
1
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
4
40% acc · 11%
0
Ground
3
60% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Court McGee rounds
0
even
1
Santiago Ponzinibbio rounds
Round 1Santiago Ponzinibbio edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:13
Knockdowns0
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
35 / 95
Sig Strikes
38 / 73
36%
Sig Str %
52%
37 / 98
Total Strikes
39 / 74
0 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:13
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Santiago Ponzinibbio38 / 7339 / 740 / 00
1Court McGee35 / 9537 / 980 / 40

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights24

Santiago Ponzinibbio

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights21