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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Court McGee won · SUB R3

Elo1493

Elo1351

Court McGeevsRyan JensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · Saturday, October 23, 2010Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Court McGee won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:21

Style matchupCourt McGee: Pressure fightervsRyan Jensen: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Court McGee wins(74.9%)

Actual result: Court McGee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Court McGee at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Court McGee has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Court McGee

Red Corner

Ryan Jensen

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1493

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Court McGee

oldest →

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24

vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25

latest

Ryan Jensen

oldest →

SUBvs Jesse Forbes · May 10

SUBvs Jason MacDonald · Apr 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Court McGeeMetricRyan Jensen

4.50

Strikes / min

2.84

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

60%

Strike defense

59%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

1.55

70%

Takedown defense

31%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.00 — meaningful gap-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Court McGeeRyan Jensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Court McGee(10 fights)Ryan Jensen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.6|Blue -141.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Court McGeeTargetRyan Jensen

By target zone

27% acc · 57%

Head

30% acc · 75%

50% acc · 18%

Body

75% acc · 17%

83% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 8%

By position

34% acc · 82%

Distance

33% acc · 89%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

65% acc · 18%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Court McGee rounds

even

Ryan Jensen rounds

Round 1Ryan Jensen edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:02

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:56

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 165

Sig Strikes

36 / 103

42.3%

Sig Str %

23.7%

69 / 174

Total Strikes

44 / 111

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

66.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Jensen	18 / 49	24 / 55	1 / 1	0
1	Court McGee	13 / 52	16 / 55	0 / 2	0
2	Ryan Jensen	18 / 51	19 / 52	0 / 2	0
2	Court McGee	30 / 88	31 / 89	1 / 1	0
3	Ryan Jensen	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
3	Court McGee	17 / 25	22 / 30	1 / 1	1

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Ryan Jensen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3