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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Court McGee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1356

Court McGeevsMarcio Alexandre JuniorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Court McGee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Court McGee wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Court McGee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Court McGee at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Court McGee has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marcio Alexandre Junior (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Court McGee

Red Corner

Marcio Alexandre Junior

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1493

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Court McGee

oldest →

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24

vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25

latest

Marcio Alexandre JuniorL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Warlley Alves · May 14

vs Tim Means · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Court McGeeMetricMarcio Alexandre Junior

4.50

Strikes / min

1.61

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

60%

Strike defense

42%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.35

70%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-1.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Court McGeeMarcio Alexandre Junior

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Court McGee(10 fights)Marcio Alexandre Junior(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.7|Blue -136.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +371.0|Blue -371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Court McGeeTargetMarcio Alexandre Junior

By target zone

42% acc · 48%

Head

33% acc · 52%

85% acc · 19%

Body

90% acc · 39%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

51% acc · 64%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

86% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Court McGee rounds

even

Marcio Alexandre Junior rounds

Round 1Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:30

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:23

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns2

Control3:10

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 99

Sig Strikes

23 / 48

55.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

133 / 185

Total Strikes

28 / 53

2 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:03

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcio Alexandre Junior	11 / 23	11 / 23	0 / 0	1
1	Court McGee	14 / 27	24 / 38	0 / 4	0
2	Marcio Alexandre Junior	7 / 11	8 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Court McGee	12 / 25	37 / 55	0 / 5	0
3	Marcio Alexandre Junior	5 / 14	9 / 18	0 / 0	0
3	Court McGee	32 / 47	72 / 92	2 / 4	0

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Marcio Alexandre Junior

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3