← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Court McGee won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1352

Court McGeevsJosh NeerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Court McGee won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCourt McGee: Pressure fightervsJosh Neer: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Court McGee wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Court McGee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Court McGee at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Court McGee has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Court McGee

Red Corner

Josh Neer

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1493

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Court McGee

oldest →

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24

vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25

latest

Josh NeerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Keith Wisniewski · Oct 11

SUBvs Duane Ludwig · Jan 12

KOvs Mike Pyle · Jun 12

SUBvs Justin Edwards · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Court McGeeMetricJosh Neer

4.50

Strikes / min

3.29

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

60%

Strike defense

58%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

1.09

70%

Takedown defense

46%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Court McGeeJosh Neer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Court McGee(10 fights)Josh Neer(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.6|Blue -140.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +76.0|Blue -76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Court McGeeTargetJosh Neer

By target zone

116

43% acc · 70%

Head

34% acc · 71%

72% acc · 20%

Body

79% acc · 17%

94% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

129

47% acc · 78%

Distance

38% acc · 83%

63% acc · 9%

Clinch

73% acc · 17%

63% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Court McGee rounds

even

Josh Neer rounds

Round 1Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes74

Takedowns0

Control0:45

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes64

Takedowns0

Control0:18

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Court McGee edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns2

Control3:44

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

166 / 334

Sig Strikes

63 / 152

49%

Sig Str %

40.7%

198 / 368

Total Strikes

71 / 160

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:47

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Neer	15 / 43	15 / 43	0 / 0
1	Court McGee	74 / 145	78 / 150	0 / 0
2	Josh Neer	38 / 87	46 / 95	0 / 0
2	Court McGee	64 / 131	71 / 139	0 / 2
3	Josh Neer	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0
3	Court McGee	28 / 58	49 / 79	2 / 3

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24

Josh Neer

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5