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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jeremiah Wells won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Court McGee
Elo1512
Jeremiah Wells

Court McGeevsJeremiah WellsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · Saturday, June 18, 2022Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jeremiah Wells won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:34

Style matchupCourt McGee: Pressure fightervsJeremiah Wells: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jeremiah Wells wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Jeremiah Wells wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremiah Wells at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Court McGee has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Court McGee has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jeremiah Wells (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Court McGee
Red Corner
VS
Jeremiah Wells
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1493
Elo
1512
41
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Court McGee
oldest →
W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Jan 22
L
KOvs Matt Brown · May 23
L
vs Alex Morono · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25
latest
Jeremiah Wells
oldest →
W
SUBvs Blood Diamond · Feb 22
W
vs Matthew Semelsberger · Apr 23
L
SUBvs Carlston Harris · Aug 23
L
vs Max Griffin · Feb 24
W
vs Themba Gorimbo · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Court McGeeMetricJeremiah Wells
4.50
Strikes / min
2.35
3.65
Strikes absorbed / min
1.28
60%
Strike defense
48%
1.78
TDs / 15 min
3.06
70%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1508 vs 1539Strikes4.6 vs 2.4Takedowns1.8 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.80Form0.6 vs 1.0
Court McGeeJeremiah Wells

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Court McGee(10 fights)Jeremiah Wells(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -19.4|Blue +19.4
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +2.7|Blue -2.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Court McGeeTargetJeremiah Wells

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
7
44% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 67%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

3
38% acc · 100%
Distance
5
36% acc · 71%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Court McGee rounds
0
even
1
Jeremiah Wells rounds
Round 1Jeremiah Wells edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 8
Sig Strikes
7 / 16
37%
Sig Str %
43%
3 / 8
Total Strikes
7 / 16
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jeremiah Wells7 / 167 / 160 / 00
1Court McGee3 / 83 / 80 / 00

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights24

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7