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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Costas Philippou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Costas Philippou
Elo1491

Costas PhilippouvsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Costas Philippou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:47

Model Prediction: Lorenz Larkin wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Costas Philippou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lorenz Larkin at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Costas Philippou enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Costas Philippou
Red Corner
VS
Lorenz Larkin
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1490
Elo
1491
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Costas PhilippouL3 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Riki Fukuda · Jul 12
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Dec 12
L
DECvs Francis Carmont · Sep 13
L
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jan 14
L
DECvs Gegard Mousasi · May 15
latest
Lorenz LarkinW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs John Howard · Jan 15
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15
L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16
W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Costas PhilippouMetricLorenz Larkin
—
Strikes / min
3.53
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.74
—
Strike defense
63%
—
TDs / 15 min
0.27
—
Takedown defense
79%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1492Strikes27.5 vs 39.0Takedowns0.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -0.2
Costas PhilippouLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Costas Philippou(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Costas Philippou

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10