Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Francis Carmont won · Decision R3
Elo1490
Costas Philippou
Elo1353
Francis Carmont

Costas PhilippouvsFrancis CarmontUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Francis Carmont won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Costas Philippou wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Costas Philippou at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Francis Carmont has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Costas Philippou
Red Corner
VS
Francis Carmont
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1490
Elo
1353
33
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Costas Philippou
oldest →
W
DECvs Riki Fukuda · Jul 12
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Dec 12
L
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jan 14
W
KOvs Lorenz Larkin · May 14
L
DECvs Gegard Mousasi · May 15
latest
Francis CarmontL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Tom Lawlor · Nov 12
W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13
L
vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14
L
vs CB Dollaway · May 14
L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Costas PhilippouMetricFrancis Carmont
—
Strikes / min
2.22
—
Strikes absorbed / min
1.64
—
Strike defense
59%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.79
—
Takedown defense
73%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1578 vs 1584Strikes34.8 vs 25.8Takedowns0.5 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.80Form1.0 vs 1.0
Costas PhilippouFrancis Carmont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Costas Philippou(10 fights)Francis Carmont(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.9|Blue -136.9
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Costas Philippou

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9