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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Umar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R5
Elo1484
Cory Sandhagen editorial illustration
Elo1537
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cory SandhagenvsUmar NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupCory Sandhagen: Well-roundedvsUmar Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -395 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Umar Nurmagomedov has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cory Sandhagen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cory Sandhagen
Red Corner
VS
Umar Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
+280
(26%)
Vegas Odds
-395
(80%)
1484
Elo
1537
34
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cory SandhagenL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Marlon Vera · Mar 23
W
vs Rob Font · Aug 23
W
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25
L
DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26
latest
Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25
W
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cory SandhagenMetricUmar Nurmagomedov
4.86
Strikes / min
3.86
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
1.86
56%
Strike defense
61%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
4.03
56%
Takedown defense
79%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.39evenly matched on net striking+2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1621 vs 1579Strikes5.0 vs 4.5Takedowns1.2 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.40Form0.8 vs 1.0
Cory SandhagenUmar Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -52.4|Blue +52.4
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +210.0|Blue -210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cory SandhagenTargetUmar Nurmagomedov

By target zone

26
28% acc · 37%
Head
48
39% acc · 49%
18
56% acc · 25%
Body
27
69% acc · 28%
27
82% acc · 38%
Leg
23
96% acc · 23%

By position

71
45% acc · 100%
Distance
96
53% acc · 98%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
40% acc · 2%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cory Sandhagen rounds
0
even
5
Umar Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:39Control
Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:12
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:55Control
Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 4Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 5Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:36Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
71 / 159
Sig Strikes
98 / 187
47.4%
Sig Str %
53.2%
80 / 172
Total Strikes
123 / 219
0 / 2
TDs
5 / 13
0%
TD %
41.6%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:12
Ctrl Time
5:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Umar Nurmagomedov15 / 2815 / 281 / 40
1Cory Sandhagen17 / 3417 / 360 / 00
2Umar Nurmagomedov24 / 4224 / 421 / 30
2Cory Sandhagen16 / 3220 / 360 / 00
3Umar Nurmagomedov17 / 2720 / 301 / 20
3Cory Sandhagen12 / 3012 / 300 / 00
4Cory Sandhagen20 / 5320 / 530 / 00
4Umar Nurmagomedov30 / 6532 / 671 / 20
5Umar Nurmagomedov12 / 2532 / 521 / 20
5Cory Sandhagen6 / 1011 / 170 / 20

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9