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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
TJ Dillashaw won · S-DEC R5
Elo1484
Cory Sandhagen editorial illustration
Elo1496

Cory SandhagenvsTJ DillashawUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, July 24, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Dillashaw won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupCory Sandhagen: Well-roundedvsTJ Dillashaw: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Cory Sandhagen wins(79.4%)

Actual result: TJ Dillashaw wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory Sandhagen at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cory Sandhagen is a KO finisher (55% of wins). TJ Dillashaw has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • TJ Dillashaw has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cory Sandhagen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cory Sandhagen
Red Corner
VS
TJ Dillashaw
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1484
Elo
1496
34
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cory SandhagenL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Aug 23
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25
L
DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26
latest
TJ DillashawL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs John Lineker · Dec 16
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17
W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19
L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cory SandhagenMetricTJ Dillashaw
4.86
Strikes / min
5.09
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.47
56%
Strike defense
62%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
1.56
56%
Takedown defense
77%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.39evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1602 vs 1622Strikes6.3 vs 5.3Takedowns0.7 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.80Form0.7 vs 0.1
Cory SandhagenTJ Dillashaw

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -11.1|Blue +11.1
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -749.0|Blue +749.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cory SandhagenTargetTJ Dillashaw

By target zone

110
43% acc · 86%
Head
59
28% acc · 54%
10
71% acc · 8%
Body
10
71% acc · 9%
8
89% acc · 6%
Leg
41
89% acc · 37%

By position

126
45% acc · 98%
Distance
98
40% acc · 89%
2
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
8
57% acc · 7%
0
0% acc
Ground
4
44% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Cory Sandhagen rounds
0
even
3
TJ Dillashaw rounds
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:24Control
Round 2Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:00Control
Round 4Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:41Control
Round 5TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
40Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:59Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
128 / 281
Sig Strikes
110 / 268
47%
Sig Str %
41%
171 / 331
Total Strikes
169 / 332
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 19
0%
TD %
10.6%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
8:22

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1TJ Dillashaw13 / 2636 / 541 / 50
1Cory Sandhagen15 / 2528 / 420 / 01
2TJ Dillashaw12 / 4120 / 490 / 30
2Cory Sandhagen26 / 5537 / 690 / 00
3TJ Dillashaw26 / 5234 / 601 / 30
3Cory Sandhagen23 / 5336 / 660 / 10
4Cory Sandhagen26 / 6528 / 670 / 00
4TJ Dillashaw19 / 6135 / 770 / 50
5TJ Dillashaw40 / 8844 / 920 / 30
5Cory Sandhagen38 / 8342 / 870 / 00

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18