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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · Decision R3

Elo1484

Elo1554

Cory SandhagenvsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Cory Sandhagen

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Cory Sandhagen at -147 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupCory Sandhagen: Well-roundedvsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Cory Sandhagen

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

-147

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+123

(45%)

1484

Elo

1554

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cory Sandhagen

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 23

vs Rob Font · Aug 23

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25

latest

Mario Bautista

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cory SandhagenMetricMario Bautista

4.86

Strikes / min

5.30

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

56%

Strike defense

54%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

1.91

56%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.39evenly matched on net striking+1.32

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.7|Blue +69.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cory SandhagenTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

47% acc · 79%

Head

54% acc · 67%

56% acc · 10%

Body

83% acc · 18%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

90% acc · 16%

By position

47% acc · 82%

Distance

57% acc · 72%

73% acc · 18%

Clinch

94% acc · 15%

Ground

68% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cory Sandhagen rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:23

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:09

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:41

Knockdowns0

40Sig. strikes

7Takedowns

2:26Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 176

Sig Strikes

114 / 185

47.7%

Sig Str %

63.3%

104 / 196

Total Strikes

143 / 215

1 / 4

TDs

8 / 20

25%

TD %

29.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

3:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mario Bautista	35 / 52	42 / 59	1 / 4	2
1	Cory Sandhagen	39 / 71	43 / 78	0 / 2	0
2	Mario Bautista	39 / 79	44 / 84	0 / 5	0
2	Cory Sandhagen	39 / 77	44 / 82	0 / 0	0
3	Mario Bautista	40 / 54	57 / 72	7 / 11	1
3	Cory Sandhagen	11 / 28	17 / 36	1 / 2	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Cory Sandhagen

Odds

-147

Market-implied probability

Cory Sandhagen 57%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Cory Sandhagen (model pick · research)$168

Mario Bautista$223

57% market-implied · model 53% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -147 · never rewritten

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15