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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Cory Sandhagen won · SUB R1
Elo1484
Cory Sandhagen editorial illustration
Elo1554
Mario Bautista

Cory SandhagenvsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Cory Sandhagen won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:31

Style matchupCory Sandhagen: Well-roundedvsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cory Sandhagen wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Cory Sandhagen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory Sandhagen at -525 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cory Sandhagen
Red Corner
VS
Mario Bautista
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+415
(19%)
1484
Elo
1554
34
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cory SandhagenL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Aug 23
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25
L
DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26
latest
Mario BautistaW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24
W
vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26
W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cory SandhagenMetricMario Bautista
4.86
Strikes / min
5.30
3.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.98
56%
Strike defense
54%
1.15
TDs / 15 min
1.91
56%
Takedown defense
55%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.39evenly matched on net striking+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1500Strikes73.0 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Cory SandhagenMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701495152015451570← oldermost recent →
Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -69.7|Blue +69.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -47.4|Blue +47.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cory SandhagenTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

9
21% acc · 53%
Head
4
18% acc · 44%
2
67% acc · 12%
Body
3
75% acc · 33%
6
75% acc · 35%
Leg
2
50% acc · 22%

By position

13
28% acc · 76%
Distance
9
31% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
4
57% acc · 24%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cory Sandhagen rounds
0
even
0
Mario Bautista rounds
Round 1Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:38
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:54Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 54
Sig Strikes
9 / 30
31%
Sig Str %
30%
17 / 55
Total Strikes
10 / 32
1 / 2
TDs
1 / 1
50%
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:38
Ctrl Time
0:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mario Bautista9 / 3010 / 321 / 10
1Cory Sandhagen17 / 5417 / 551 / 22

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights15