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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Elise Reed won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1494

Cory McKennavsElise ReedUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Elise Reed won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCory McKenna: WrestlervsElise Reed: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Cory McKenna wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Elise Reed wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory McKenna at -300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cory McKenna has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Elise Reed has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cory McKenna

Red Corner

Elise Reed

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1493

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

147.32 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cory McKennaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kay Hansen · Nov 20

SUBvs Miranda Granger · Aug 22

vs Cheyanne Vlismas · Dec 22

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Mar 24

vs Julia Polastri · Oct 24

latest

Elise Reed

oldest →

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jun 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Penne · Oct 24

KOvs Denise Gomes · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cory McKennaMetricElise Reed

2.94

Strikes / min

3.41

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

46%

Strike defense

51%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.46

75%

Takedown defense

53%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.74evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cory McKennaElise Reed

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cory McKenna(6 fights)Elise Reed(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cory McKennaTargetElise Reed

By target zone

35% acc · 88%

Head

45% acc · 58%

75% acc · 5%

Body

70% acc · 9%

67% acc · 7%

Leg

78% acc · 33%

By position

33% acc · 80%

Distance

53% acc · 92%

83% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

88% acc · 12%

Ground

75% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cory McKenna rounds

even

Elise Reed rounds

Round 1Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:27

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Cory McKenna edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:19

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 160

Sig Strikes

76 / 140

38%

Sig Str %

53%

99 / 216

Total Strikes

121 / 193

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

44.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:46

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elise Reed	26 / 44	42 / 64	0 / 0
1	Cory McKenna	15 / 48	27 / 62	1 / 3
2	Elise Reed	35 / 64	36 / 65	0 / 0
2	Cory McKenna	27 / 74	28 / 75	1 / 2
3	Elise Reed	15 / 32	43 / 64	0 / 0
3	Cory McKenna	18 / 38	44 / 79	1 / 2

Cory McKenna

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach58.0"

Fights6

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9