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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Cortney Casey won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Cortney Casey
Elo1389
Mara Romero Borella

Cortney CaseyvsMara Romero BorellaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · Saturday, May 16, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Cortney Casey won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:36

Style matchupCortney Casey: Pressure fightervsMara Romero Borella: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cortney Casey wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Cortney Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cortney Casey at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mara Romero Borella enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mara Romero Borella has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mara Romero Borella has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cortney Casey
Red Corner
VS
Mara Romero Borella
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1495
Elo
1389
39
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cortney Casey
oldest →
L
vs Cynthia Calvillo · Feb 19
L
SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20
L
vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21
W
vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21
L
vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22
latest
Mara Romero BorellaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 18
W
vs Taila Santos · Feb 19
L
KOvs Lauren Murphy · Aug 19
L
vs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Mayra Bueno Silva · Sep 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cortney CaseyMetricMara Romero Borella
4.29
Strikes / min
2.54
4.00
Strikes absorbed / min
2.48
55%
Strike defense
71%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
1.83
39%
Takedown defense
66%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1476 vs 1483Strikes4.7 vs 2.5Takedowns0.3 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.20Form-0.3 vs -0.6
Cortney CaseyMara Romero Borella

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cortney Casey(10 fights)Mara Romero Borella(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +106.1|Blue -106.1
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +363.0|Blue -363.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cortney CaseyTargetMara Romero Borella

By target zone

4
50% acc · 67%
Head
2
50% acc · 40%
1
100% acc · 17%
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
1
33% acc · 17%
Leg
2
100% acc · 40%

By position

2
29% acc · 33%
Distance
2
50% acc · 40%
1
50% acc · 17%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 40%
3
100% acc · 50%
Ground
1
100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Cortney Casey rounds
0
even
1
Mara Romero Borella rounds
Round 1Mara Romero Borella edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:55Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 12
Sig Strikes
5 / 7
50%
Sig Str %
71%
18 / 24
Total Strikes
21 / 24
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mara Romero Borella5 / 721 / 241 / 20
1Cortney Casey6 / 1218 / 240 / 02

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15

Mara Romero Borella

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8