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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Cortney Casey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1411

Cortney CaseyvsLiana JojuaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cortney Casey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCortney Casey: Pressure fightervsLiana Jojua: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Liana Jojua wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Cortney Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Liana Jojua at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cortney Casey enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cortney Casey has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cortney Casey

Red Corner

Liana Jojua

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1495

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cortney CaseyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cynthia Calvillo · Feb 19

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Liana Jojua

oldest →

KOvs Sarah Moras · Sep 19

SUBvs Diana Belbita · Jul 20

KOvs Miranda Maverick · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cortney CaseyMetricLiana Jojua

4.29

Strikes / min

2.42

4.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.32

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.71

39%

Takedown defense

50%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-2.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cortney CaseyLiana Jojua

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cortney Casey(10 fights)Liana Jojua(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +83.5|Blue -83.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cortney CaseyTargetLiana Jojua

By target zone

35% acc · 69%

Head

20% acc · 85%

48% acc · 13%

Body

44% acc · 12%

80% acc · 18%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

40% acc · 97%

Distance

21% acc · 88%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

33% acc · 1%

Ground

43% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cortney Casey rounds

even

Liana Jojua rounds

Round 1Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 218

Sig Strikes

34 / 154

40.3%

Sig Str %

21%

124 / 257

Total Strikes

57 / 184

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Liana Jojua	9 / 47	13 / 54	1 / 1
1	Cortney Casey	29 / 67	53 / 91	0 / 0
2	Liana Jojua	8 / 45	26 / 67	0 / 0
2	Cortney Casey	23 / 61	30 / 72	0 / 0
3	Liana Jojua	17 / 62	18 / 63	1 / 2
3	Cortney Casey	37 / 90	41 / 94	0 / 0

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Liana Jojua

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4