Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
JJ Aldrich won · S-DEC
Elo1495
Cortney Casey
Elo1522
JJ Aldrich

Cortney CaseyvsJJ AldrichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Saturday, March 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

JJ Aldrich won

S-DEC

Style matchupCortney Casey: Pressure fightervsJJ Aldrich: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: JJ Aldrich wins(59.3%)

Actual result: JJ Aldrich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JJ Aldrich at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • JJ Aldrich has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors JJ Aldrich (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cortney Casey
Red Corner
VS
JJ Aldrich
Blue Corner
+122
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-142
(59%)
1495
Elo
1522
39
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cortney Casey
oldest →
L
vs Cynthia Calvillo · Feb 19
W
SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20
L
SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20
W
vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21
L
vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22
latest
JJ AldrichW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Liang Na · Aug 23
W
vs Montana De La Rosa · Oct 23
L
vs Veronica Hardy · May 24
W
vs Andrea Lee · Mar 25
W
DECvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cortney CaseyMetricJJ Aldrich
4.29
Strikes / min
3.92
4.00
Strikes absorbed / min
4.34
55%
Strike defense
61%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.70
39%
Takedown defense
67%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1477 vs 1514Strikes4.3 vs 3.8Takedowns0.3 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -0.1
Cortney CaseyJJ Aldrich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Cortney Casey(10 fights)JJ Aldrich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -26.8|Blue +26.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cortney CaseyTargetJJ Aldrich

By target zone

35
33% acc · 64%
Head
41
55% acc · 91%
9
75% acc · 16%
Body
4
67% acc · 9%
11
92% acc · 20%
Leg
0

By position

45
39% acc · 82%
Distance
36
56% acc · 80%
10
59% acc · 18%
Clinch
4
57% acc · 9%
0
Ground
5
56% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cortney Casey rounds
0
even
2
JJ Aldrich rounds
Round 1Cortney Casey edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:02
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:54Control
Round 2JJ Aldrich edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:06Control
Round 3JJ Aldrich edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
55 / 131
Sig Strikes
45 / 80
40%
Sig Str %
55.3%
121 / 202
Total Strikes
58 / 99
0 / 1
TDs
4 / 7
0%
TD %
66.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
5:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1JJ Aldrich9 / 1918 / 311 / 30
1Cortney Casey21 / 4051 / 740 / 10
2JJ Aldrich11 / 1815 / 242 / 30
2Cortney Casey7 / 2543 / 620 / 00
3JJ Aldrich25 / 4325 / 441 / 10
3Cortney Casey27 / 6627 / 660 / 00

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15

JJ Aldrich

StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights16