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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cynthia Calvillo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1455

Cortney CaseyvsCynthia CalvilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Cynthia Calvillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCortney Casey: Pressure fightervsCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Cynthia Calvillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cynthia Calvillo at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cortney Casey

Red Corner

Cynthia Calvillo

Blue Corner

+295

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-355

(78%)

1495

Elo

1455

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cortney Casey

oldest →

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Cynthia CalvilloL5 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cortney CaseyMetricCynthia Calvillo

4.29

Strikes / min

4.41

4.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.12

55%

Strike defense

64%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.80

39%

Takedown defense

77%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cortney CaseyCynthia Calvillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cortney Casey(10 fights)Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.4|Blue -40.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cortney CaseyTargetCynthia Calvillo

By target zone

30% acc · 56%

Head

29% acc · 50%

75% acc · 8%

Body

71% acc · 21%

81% acc · 36%

Leg

83% acc · 29%

By position

41% acc · 99%

Distance

42% acc · 96%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cortney Casey rounds

even

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

Round 1Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 176

Sig Strikes

82 / 192

41%

Sig Str %

42.3%

73 / 177

Total Strikes

82 / 192

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cynthia Calvillo	32 / 62	32 / 62	0 / 2
1	Cortney Casey	24 / 58	24 / 59	0 / 0
2	Cynthia Calvillo	28 / 63	28 / 63	0 / 3
2	Cortney Casey	22 / 52	22 / 52	0 / 0
3	Cynthia Calvillo	22 / 67	22 / 67	0 / 1
3	Cortney Casey	27 / 66	27 / 66	0 / 0

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12