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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Cortney Casey won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Cortney Casey
Elo1357

Cortney CaseyvsCristina StanciuUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Cortney Casey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:36

Style matchupCortney Casey: Pressure fightervsCristina Stanciu: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Cristina Stanciu wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Cortney Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cristina Stanciu at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cortney Casey
Red Corner
VS
Cristina Stanciu
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1495
Elo
1357
39
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'3"
170.18 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cortney Casey
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20
L
SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20
L
vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21
W
vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21
L
vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22
latest
Cristina Stanciu
oldest →
L
vs Maryna Moroz · Apr 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cortney CaseyMetricCristina Stanciu
4.29
Strikes / min
2.50
4.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.07
55%
Strike defense
52%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.85
39%
Takedown defense
40%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1468 vs 1484Strikes67.5 vs 39.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Cortney CaseyCristina Stanciu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Cortney Casey(10 fights)Cristina Stanciu(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.6|Blue -137.6
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +134.0|Blue -134.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cortney CaseyTargetCristina Stanciu

By target zone

18
69% acc · 95%
Head
2
25% acc · 40%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 20%
1
50% acc · 5%
Leg
2
67% acc · 40%

By position

3
30% acc · 16%
Distance
4
36% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
16
89% acc · 84%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cortney Casey rounds
0
even
0
Cristina Stanciu rounds
Round 1Cortney Casey edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns2
Control0:57
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
19 / 28
Sig Strikes
5 / 12
67%
Sig Str %
41%
31 / 42
Total Strikes
5 / 12
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:57
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cristina Stanciu5 / 125 / 120 / 00
1Cortney Casey19 / 2831 / 422 / 20

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15

Cristina Stanciu

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach—
Fights2