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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cortney Casey won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1506

Cortney CaseyvsAngela HillUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Cortney Casey won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCortney Casey: Pressure fightervsAngela Hill: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Angela Hill wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Cortney Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Angela Hill at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Angela Hill has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cortney Casey

Red Corner

Angela Hill

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1495

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cortney Casey

oldest →

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Angela Hill

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Aug 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 25

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 25

vs Fatima Kline · Nov 25

DECvs Xiong Jingnan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cortney CaseyMetricAngela Hill

4.29

Strikes / min

5.37

4.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.02

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

0.75

39%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cortney CaseyAngela Hill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cortney Casey(10 fights)Angela Hill(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.9|Blue +10.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cortney CaseyTargetAngela Hill

By target zone

28% acc · 72%

Head

42% acc · 54%

61% acc · 15%

Body

83% acc · 28%

93% acc · 13%

Leg

88% acc · 18%

By position

100

31% acc · 90%

Distance

110

52% acc · 91%

90% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cortney Casey rounds

even

Angela Hill rounds

Round 1Angela Hill edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control1:04

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Cortney Casey edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:38

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Angela Hill edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 333

Sig Strikes

121 / 222

32.7%

Sig Str %

53.7%

117 / 341

Total Strikes

123 / 224

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Angela Hill	33 / 65	33 / 65	1 / 1
1	Cortney Casey	29 / 98	29 / 99	1 / 1
2	Angela Hill	41 / 75	43 / 77	0 / 0
2	Cortney Casey	43 / 113	47 / 117	0 / 4
3	Angela Hill	47 / 82	47 / 82	0 / 0
3	Cortney Casey	39 / 122	41 / 125	0 / 1

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15

Angela Hill

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights30