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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Corey Anderson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Corey Anderson
Elo1490

Corey AndersonvsTom LawlorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Corey Anderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCorey Anderson: WrestlervsTom Lawlor: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Corey Anderson wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Corey Anderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Corey Anderson at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tom Lawlor is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Corey Anderson has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Corey Anderson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
  • Corey Anderson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Corey Anderson
Red Corner
VS
Tom Lawlor
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1492
Elo
1490
36
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Corey Anderson
oldest →
W
vs Patrick Cummins · Apr 18
W
vs Glover Teixeira · Jul 18
W
vs Ilir Latifi · Dec 18
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Nov 19
L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Feb 20
latest
Tom LawlorW2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11
W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12
L
vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12
W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13
W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Corey AndersonMetricTom Lawlor
4.43
Strikes / min
2.50
2.22
Strikes absorbed / min
2.41
59%
Strike defense
60%
4.89
TDs / 15 min
2.46
83%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.21Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1544 vs 1522Strikes64.8 vs 21.3Takedowns3.8 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.90Form0.6 vs 0.8
Corey AndersonTom Lawlor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Corey Anderson(10 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Corey AndersonTargetTom Lawlor

By target zone

33
26% acc · 60%
Head
28
30% acc · 90%
10
77% acc · 18%
Body
2
50% acc · 6%
12
92% acc · 22%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

48
34% acc · 87%
Distance
21
24% acc · 68%
3
50% acc · 5%
Clinch
10
83% acc · 32%
4
80% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Corey Anderson rounds
0
even
0
Tom Lawlor rounds
Round 1Corey Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Corey Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3Corey Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:44
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
55 / 153
Sig Strikes
31 / 99
36%
Sig Str %
30%
79 / 178
Total Strikes
32 / 100
1 / 4
TDs
1 / 1
33.3%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:44
Ctrl Time
0:14

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tom Lawlor18 / 5019 / 510 / 00
1Corey Anderson22 / 6722 / 670 / 20
2Tom Lawlor11 / 4211 / 421 / 10
2Corey Anderson22 / 5822 / 580 / 10
3Tom Lawlor2 / 72 / 70 / 00
3Corey Anderson11 / 2835 / 531 / 10

Corey Anderson

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8