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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Corey Anderson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Corey Anderson
Elo1373
Patrick Cummins

Corey AndersonvsPatrick CumminsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Corey Anderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCorey Anderson: WrestlervsPatrick Cummins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Corey Anderson wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Corey Anderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Corey Anderson at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Corey Anderson has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Corey Anderson
Red Corner
VS
Patrick Cummins
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1492
Elo
1373
36
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Corey Anderson
oldest →
L
KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Nov 17
W
vs Glover Teixeira · Jul 18
W
vs Ilir Latifi · Dec 18
W
KOvs Johnny Walker · Nov 19
L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Feb 20
latest
Patrick CumminsL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17
W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17
L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18
L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Corey AndersonMetricPatrick Cummins
4.43
Strikes / min
4.26
2.22
Strikes absorbed / min
3.35
59%
Strike defense
55%
4.89
TDs / 15 min
4.49
83%
Takedown defense
28%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.21Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1522 vs 1532Strikes53.6 vs 44.2Takedowns3.3 vs 3.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.10Form-0.5 vs 0.6
Corey AndersonPatrick Cummins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Corey Anderson(10 fights)Patrick Cummins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +119.3|Blue -119.3
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Corey AndersonTargetPatrick Cummins

By target zone

56
52% acc · 88%
Head
24
28% acc · 77%
6
60% acc · 9%
Body
6
50% acc · 19%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
1
50% acc · 3%

By position

38
45% acc · 59%
Distance
18
23% acc · 58%
16
73% acc · 25%
Clinch
12
63% acc · 39%
10
83% acc · 16%
Ground
1
100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Corey Anderson rounds
0
even
0
Patrick Cummins rounds
Round 1Corey Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns2
Control1:33
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:29Control
Round 2Corey Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns5
Control2:17
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Corey Anderson edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns5
Control4:12
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
64 / 119
Sig Strikes
31 / 99
50%
Sig Str %
31%
99 / 162
Total Strikes
44 / 113
12 / 13
TDs
0 / 1
94.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:02
Ctrl Time
0:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Patrick Cummins18 / 5322 / 580 / 10
1Corey Anderson43 / 7550 / 822 / 20
2Patrick Cummins8 / 3215 / 390 / 00
2Corey Anderson16 / 3324 / 415 / 50
3Patrick Cummins5 / 147 / 160 / 00
3Corey Anderson5 / 1125 / 395 / 60

Corey Anderson

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights15

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13