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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Corey Anderson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1354

Corey AndersonvsJustin JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Corey Anderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Corey Anderson wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Corey Anderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Corey Anderson at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Corey Anderson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Corey Anderson has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Corey Anderson

Red Corner

Justin Jones

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1492

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Corey Anderson

oldest →

vs Patrick Cummins · Apr 18

vs Glover Teixeira · Jul 18

vs Ilir Latifi · Dec 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Nov 19

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Feb 20

latest

Justin Jones

oldest →

vs Ron Stallings · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Corey AndersonMetricJustin Jones

4.43

Strikes / min

1.70

2.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

59%

Strike defense

45%

4.89

TDs / 15 min

1.00

83%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.21Δ 3.68 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Corey AndersonJustin Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Corey Anderson(10 fights)Justin Jones(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.7|Blue -137.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Corey AndersonTargetJustin Jones

By target zone

43% acc · 69%

Head

26% acc · 43%

81% acc · 29%

Body

69% acc · 32%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

78% acc · 25%

By position

34% acc · 40%

Distance

37% acc · 71%

73% acc · 53%

Clinch

53% acc · 29%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Corey Anderson rounds

even

Justin Jones rounds

Round 1Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:27

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control2:43

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control4:35

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 89

Sig Strikes

28 / 69

56%

Sig Str %

37.3%

95 / 145

Total Strikes

32 / 73

7 / 13

TDs

0 / 1

55.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Jones	15 / 39	15 / 39	0 / 1	1
1	Corey Anderson	20 / 43	32 / 61	2 / 5	0
2	Justin Jones	11 / 21	12 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Corey Anderson	16 / 34	35 / 53	2 / 3	0
3	Justin Jones	2 / 9	5 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Corey Anderson	9 / 12	28 / 31	3 / 5	0

Corey Anderson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights15

Justin Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2