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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Nate Diaz won · SUB R2

Elo1474

Elo1496

Conor McGregorvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nate Diaz won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:12

Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Conor McGregor has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Conor McGregor has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor

Red Corner

Nate Diaz

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1474

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Conor McGregorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Nate Diaz

oldest →

vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16

vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19

vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Conor McGregorMetricNate Diaz

5.32

Strikes / min

4.57

4.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

54%

Strike defense

52%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

1.05

66%

Takedown defense

41%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Conor McGregorNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Conor McGregor(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.2|Blue +22.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Conor McGregorTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

40% acc · 77%

Head

50% acc · 84%

64% acc · 11%

Body

69% acc · 12%

58% acc · 11%

Leg

38% acc · 4%

By position

42% acc · 92%

Distance

47% acc · 81%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

83% acc · 13%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

71% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Conor McGregor rounds

even

Nate Diaz rounds

Round 1Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:35

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Nate Diaz edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:04

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 140

Sig Strikes

77 / 152

43.5%

Sig Str %

48.5%

66 / 145

Total Strikes

89 / 169

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Diaz	23 / 62	26 / 68	1 / 1	0
1	Conor McGregor	28 / 74	32 / 78	0 / 0	0
2	Nate Diaz	54 / 90	63 / 101	0 / 0	2
2	Conor McGregor	33 / 66	34 / 67	0 / 1	0

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18