Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Conor McGregor won · U-DEC R3
Elo1474
Conor McGregor editorial illustration
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration

Conor McGregorvsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Max Holloway has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
  • Conor McGregor has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
1474
Elo
1517
38
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Conor McGregorL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18
W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26
latest
Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Conor McGregorMetricMax Holloway
5.32
Strikes / min
6.91
4.66
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
54%
Strike defense
58%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
0.23
66%
Takedown defense
81%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1516Strikes21.0 vs 70.6Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.1
Conor McGregorMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Conor McGregor(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -43.4|Blue +43.4
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red -2.5|Blue +2.5
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Conor McGregorTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

34
30% acc · 64%
Head
10
14% acc · 43%
4
24% acc · 8%
Body
1
25% acc · 4%
15
65% acc · 28%
Leg
12
67% acc · 52%

By position

42
31% acc · 79%
Distance
22
24% acc · 96%
2
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 4%
9
56% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Conor McGregor rounds
0
even
0
Max Holloway rounds
Round 1Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:05
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control2:04
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns3
Control4:17
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
53 / 153
Sig Strikes
23 / 93
39.7%
Sig Str %
22.7%
71 / 173
Total Strikes
32 / 104
4 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
66.7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:26
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Max Holloway14 / 5114 / 510 / 00
1Conor McGregor27 / 8728 / 880 / 10
2Max Holloway7 / 3215 / 410 / 00
2Conor McGregor15 / 4718 / 501 / 10
3Max Holloway2 / 103 / 120 / 00
3Conor McGregor11 / 1925 / 353 / 30

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33