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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1474

Elo1517

Conor McGregorvsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:09

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Max Holloway

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Max Holloway at -256 American odds · hypothetical only

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Max Holloway has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Conor McGregor has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

+209

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-256

(72%)

1474

Elo

1517

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Conor McGregorL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Conor McGregorMetricMax Holloway

5.32

Strikes / min

6.91

4.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

54%

Strike defense

58%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.23

66%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+2.30

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Conor McGregor(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.4|Blue +43.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +1701.0|Blue -1701.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Conor McGregorTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

0% acc

Head

53% acc · 67%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

0% acc

Distance

83% acc · 42%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

54% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Conor McGregor rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 6

Sig Strikes

12 / 19

Sig Str %

63%

5 / 11

Total Strikes

14 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Max Holloway	12 / 19	14 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Conor McGregor	0 / 6	5 / 11	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Max Holloway

Odds

-256

Market-implied probability

Max Holloway 69%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Conor McGregor$309

Max Holloway (model pick · research)$139

69% market-implied · model 58% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -256 · never rewritten

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33