← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1474

Elo1429

Conor McGregorvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:40

Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Donald Cerrone has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+275

(27%)

1474

Elo

1429

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Conor McGregorL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tony Ferguson · Jun 19

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Conor McGregorMetricDonald Cerrone

5.32

Strikes / min

4.41

4.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

1.16

66%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Conor McGregorDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Conor McGregor(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.4|Blue -45.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +343.0|Blue -343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Conor McGregorTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

76% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

43% acc · 16%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 16%

Clinch

81% acc · 68%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Conor McGregor rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 26

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

73%

Sig Str %

20 / 27

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Donald Cerrone	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Conor McGregor	19 / 26	20 / 27	0 / 0	0

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37