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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1474

Elo1490

Conor McGregorvsDiego BrandaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · Saturday, July 19, 2014Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:05

Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsDiego Brandao: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -690 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Diego Brandao has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
Conor McGregor has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor

Red Corner

Diego Brandao

Blue Corner

-690

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+560

(15%)

1474

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Conor McGregorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Diego Brandao

oldest →

vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13

KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15

KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Conor McGregorMetricDiego Brandao

5.32

Strikes / min

2.94

4.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

54%

Strike defense

62%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

3.21

66%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Conor McGregorDiego Brandao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Conor McGregor(10 fights)Diego Brandao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.4|Blue +16.4

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Conor McGregorTargetDiego Brandao

By target zone

34% acc · 83%

Head

31% acc · 56%

60% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 44%

Leg

0% acc

By position

33% acc · 56%

Distance

31% acc · 56%

Clinch

80% acc · 44%

42% acc · 44%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Conor McGregor rounds

even

Diego Brandao rounds

Round 1Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:21

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 49

Sig Strikes

9 / 22

36%

Sig Str %

40%

37 / 68

Total Strikes

10 / 23

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Brandao	9 / 22	10 / 23	0 / 2	1
1	Conor McGregor	18 / 49	37 / 68	1 / 1	0

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights10