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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1474

Elo1491

Conor McGregorvsDennis SiverUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:54

Style matchupConor McGregor: Pressure fightervsDennis Siver: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -975 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dennis Siver has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
Conor McGregor has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Conor McGregor

Red Corner

Dennis Siver

Blue Corner

-975

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+775

(11%)

1474

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Conor McGregorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Dennis Siver

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 12

KOvs Cub Swanson · Jul 13

vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14

vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15

vs BJ Penn · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Conor McGregorMetricDennis Siver

5.32

Strikes / min

3.87

4.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

54%

Strike defense

65%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

0.87

66%

Takedown defense

65%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66evenly matched on net striking+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Conor McGregorDennis Siver

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Conor McGregor(10 fights)Dennis Siver(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.7|Blue +16.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Conor McGregorTargetDennis Siver

By target zone

49% acc · 77%

Head

19% acc · 41%

75% acc · 19%

Body

31% acc · 13%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

65% acc · 47%

By position

49% acc · 73%

Distance

31% acc · 94%

71% acc · 16%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

78% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Conor McGregor rounds

even

Dennis Siver rounds

Round 1Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 119

Sig Strikes

32 / 104

57%

Sig Str %

27%

65 / 120

Total Strikes

33 / 105

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dennis Siver	27 / 82	28 / 83	0 / 3
1	Conor McGregor	43 / 87	43 / 87	0 / 0
2	Dennis Siver	5 / 22	5 / 22	0 / 0
2	Conor McGregor	21 / 32	22 / 33	0 / 0

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13