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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jose Delgado won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1465
Elo1559
Jose Delgado editorial illustration

Connor MatthewsvsJose DelgadoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jose Delgado won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupConnor Matthews: WrestlervsJose Delgado: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jose Delgado wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Jose Delgado wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Delgado at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jose Delgado is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Connor Matthews has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Connor Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Jose Delgado
Blue Corner
+460
(18%)
Vegas Odds
-620
(86%)
1465
Elo
1559
34
Age
28
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Connor MatthewsL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Dennis Buzukja · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Yadier del Valle · May 25
latest
Jose DelgadoW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Hyder Amil · Jun 25
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 25
W
vs Andre Fili · Mar 26
W
DECvs Austin Bashi · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Connor MatthewsMetricJose Delgado
4.82
Strikes / min
7.48
6.06
Strikes absorbed / min
4.95
55%
Strike defense
50%
3.24
TDs / 15 min
1.51
46%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 3.77 — meaningful gap+2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1500Strikes4.8 vs 7.5Takedowns3.2 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Connor MatthewsJose Delgado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501480151015401570← oldermost recent →
Connor Matthews(3 fights)Jose Delgado(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -93.3|Blue +93.3
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Connor MatthewsTargetJose Delgado

By target zone

6
30% acc · 100%
Head
14
48% acc · 67%
0
0% acc
Body
6
86% acc · 29%
0
Leg
1
25% acc · 5%

By position

6
26% acc · 100%
Distance
14
47% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
7
70% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Connor Matthews rounds
0
even
1
Jose Delgado rounds
Round 1Jose Delgado edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control0:47
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 23
Sig Strikes
21 / 40
26%
Sig Str %
52%
9 / 31
Total Strikes
22 / 42
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:47
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jose Delgado21 / 4022 / 420 / 00
1Connor Matthews6 / 239 / 312 / 30

Connor Matthews

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3

Jose Delgado

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5