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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Robert Whittaker won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1353

Elo1511

Colton SmithvsRobert WhittakerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · Saturday, May 25, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robert Whittaker won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:41

Style matchupColton Smith: WrestlervsRobert Whittaker: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Colton Smith wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Robert Whittaker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colton Smith at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robert Whittaker has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Colton Smith

Red Corner

Robert Whittaker

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1353

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colton SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Ricci · Dec 12

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Nov 13

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14

latest

Robert Whittaker

oldest →

vs Paulo Costa · Feb 24

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 24

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 24

vs Reinier de Ridder · Jul 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colton SmithMetricRobert Whittaker

1.64

Strikes / min

4.39

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.36

51%

Strike defense

59%

4.09

TDs / 15 min

0.73

25%

Takedown defense

82%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colton SmithRobert Whittaker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colton Smith(4 fights)Robert Whittaker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -157.8|Blue +157.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colton SmithTargetRobert Whittaker

By target zone

26% acc · 55%

Head

47% acc · 100%

60% acc · 18%

Body

75% acc · 27%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 79%

Distance

45% acc · 75%

64% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 21%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colton Smith rounds

even

Robert Whittaker rounds

Round 1Colton Smith edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Robert Whittaker edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 91

Sig Strikes

53 / 113

29.7%

Sig Str %

51%

33 / 91

Total Strikes

54 / 114

0 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Robert Whittaker	17 / 45	17 / 45	1 / 1	0
1	Colton Smith	20 / 40	20 / 40	0 / 4	1
2	Robert Whittaker	28 / 56	29 / 57	0 / 0	0
2	Colton Smith	12 / 43	12 / 43	0 / 2	0
3	Robert Whittaker	8 / 12	8 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Colton Smith	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 0	0

Colton Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Robert Whittaker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights26