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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Colton Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1490

Colton SmithvsMike RicciUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Colton Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mike Ricci wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Colton Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Ricci at -300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Colton Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Ricci has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Ricci has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Ricci (53.5%).
Mike Ricci has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Colton Smith

Red Corner

Mike Ricci

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colton SmithL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robert Whittaker · May 13

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Nov 13

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14

latest

Mike Ricci

oldest →

vs Colin Fletcher · Mar 13

vs Myles Jury · Sep 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colton SmithMetricMike Ricci

1.64

Strikes / min

1.80

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

1.64

51%

Strike defense

65%

4.09

TDs / 15 min

0.67

25%

Takedown defense

54%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.16

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colton Smith(4 fights)Mike Ricci(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.0|Blue +137.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colton SmithTargetMike Ricci

By target zone

60% acc · 20%

Head

55% acc · 67%

50% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 22%

100% acc · 73%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

67% acc · 27%

Distance

56% acc · 56%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

0% acc

88% acc · 47%

Ground

80% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colton Smith rounds

even

Mike Ricci rounds

Round 1Colton Smith edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns4

Control3:41

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Colton Smith edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 3Colton Smith edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:15

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 18

Sig Strikes

9 / 15

82.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

88 / 113

Total Strikes

10 / 17

7 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

44.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

12:25

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Ricci	5 / 8	6 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Colton Smith	4 / 5	19 / 25	4 / 8	0
2	Mike Ricci	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Colton Smith	5 / 6	26 / 36	2 / 6	0
3	Mike Ricci	2 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
3	Colton Smith	6 / 7	43 / 52	1 / 2	1

Colton Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Mike Ricci

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3