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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2

Elo1353

Elo1529

Colton SmithvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · Wednesday, November 6, 2013Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:41

Style matchupColton Smith: WrestlervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Colton Smith wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colton Smith at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Colton Smith has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Michael Chiesa has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Michael Chiesa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Colton Smith

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1353

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colton SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Ricci · Dec 12

KOvs Robert Whittaker · May 13

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colton SmithMetricMichael Chiesa

1.64

Strikes / min

2.02

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

51%

Strike defense

57%

4.09

TDs / 15 min

3.11

25%

Takedown defense

65%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colton SmithMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colton Smith(4 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -175.6|Blue +175.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colton SmithTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

0% acc

Head

31% acc · 71%

60% acc · 75%

Body

100% acc · 14%

25% acc · 25%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

0% acc

Distance

37% acc · 100%

80% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colton Smith rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Colton Smith edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control2:26

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:44

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 18

Sig Strikes

7 / 19

18%

Sig Str %

40%

13 / 27

Total Strikes

9 / 21

2 / 3

TDs

1 / 2

66%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:10

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chiesa	2 / 11	3 / 12	0 / 0	1
1	Colton Smith	0 / 7	7 / 14	2 / 3	1
2	Michael Chiesa	5 / 8	6 / 9	1 / 2	1
2	Colton Smith	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 0	0

Colton Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22