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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Diego Ferreira won · SUB R1

Elo1353

Elo1489

Colton SmithvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:38

Style matchupColton Smith: WrestlervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Colton Smith wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Colton Smith at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Ferreira has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Colton Smith

Red Corner

Diego Ferreira

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1353

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Colton SmithL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Ricci · Dec 12

KOvs Robert Whittaker · May 13

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Nov 13

latest

Diego FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21

KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23

KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24

vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Colton SmithMetricDiego Ferreira

1.64

Strikes / min

4.70

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

51%

Strike defense

55%

4.09

TDs / 15 min

0.82

25%

Takedown defense

57%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Colton SmithDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Colton Smith(4 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.5|Blue +135.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Colton SmithTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

0% acc

Head

67% acc · 57%

100% acc · 50%

Body

75% acc · 43%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

50% acc · 29%

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 43%

Ground

67% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Colton Smith rounds

even

Diego Ferreira rounds

Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:10

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 3

Sig Strikes

7 / 10

66%

Sig Str %

70%

2 / 3

Total Strikes

7 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Ferreira	7 / 10	7 / 10	1 / 1	1
1	Colton Smith	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0	0

Colton Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17