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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melsik Baghdasaryan won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1411

Elo1474

Collin AnglinvsMelsik BaghdasaryanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · Saturday, July 31, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melsik Baghdasaryan won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:50

Style matchupCollin Anglin: WrestlervsMelsik Baghdasaryan: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melsik Baghdasaryan at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Collin Anglin has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Collin Anglin

Red Corner

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1411

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Collin Anglin

oldest →

KOvs Sean Woodson · Nov 21

latest

Melsik BaghdasaryanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bruno Souza · Nov 21

SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23

vs Tucker Lutz · Jul 23

KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25

SUBvs Murtazali Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Collin AnglinMetricMelsik Baghdasaryan

4.59

Strikes / min

5.04

5.54

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

51%

Strike defense

56%

2.28

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.95Δ 2.85 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Collin AnglinMelsik Baghdasaryan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Collin Anglin(2 fights)Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.6|Blue +62.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Collin AnglinTargetMelsik Baghdasaryan

By target zone

41% acc · 56%

Head

54% acc · 64%

60% acc · 36%

Body

80% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

50% acc · 9%

By position

44% acc · 76%

Distance

52% acc · 73%

75% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Collin Anglin rounds

even

Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds

Round 1Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:18

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 2Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 51

Sig Strikes

44 / 75

47.5%

Sig Str %

54.5%

28 / 57

Total Strikes

51 / 82

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melsik Baghdasaryan	34 / 53	41 / 60	0 / 0
1	Collin Anglin	20 / 40	23 / 46	1 / 1
2	Melsik Baghdasaryan	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0
2	Collin Anglin	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0

Collin Anglin

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Melsik Baghdasaryan

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6