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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jason Witt won · SUB

Elo1391

Elo1432

Cole WilliamsvsJason WittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Saturday, October 31, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jason Witt won

SUB

Model Prediction: Jason Witt wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Jason Witt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Witt at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Witt threatens submissions; Cole Williams has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Jason Witt has 29pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jason Witt has 75pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Williams

Red Corner

Jason Witt

Blue Corner

+119

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1391

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole Williams

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Silva · Aug 19

latest

Jason WittL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20

KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21

KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22

KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole WilliamsMetricJason Witt

0.31

Strikes / min

2.15

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

23%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

6.90

25%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-5.03Δ 4.64 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole WilliamsJason Witt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Williams(2 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.5|Blue +41.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole WilliamsTargetJason Witt

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

61% acc · 85%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 25%

Clinch

Ground

68% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Williams rounds

even

Jason Witt rounds

Round 1Jason Witt edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:49Control

Round 2Jason Witt edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 5

Sig Strikes

20 / 31

20%

Sig Str %

64.5%

23 / 27

Total Strikes

50 / 70

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Witt	12 / 19	36 / 52	1 / 2	0
1	Cole Williams	0 / 0	22 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Jason Witt	8 / 12	14 / 18	1 / 1	1
2	Cole Williams	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	0

Cole Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Jason Witt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6