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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Miles Johns won · S-DEC R3

Elo1388

Elo1479

Cole SmithvsMiles JohnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Miles Johns won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCole Smith: Submission grapplervsMiles Johns: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Cole Smith wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Miles Johns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cole Smith at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miles Johns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Miles Johns has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Miles Johns has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Smith

Red Corner

Miles Johns

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1388

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole Smith

oldest →

vs Mitch Gagnon · May 19

vs Hunter Azure · Sep 20

latest

Miles JohnsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Mar 24

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Jun 24

vs Felipe Lima · Dec 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Aug 25

SUBvs Daniel Marcos · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole SmithMetricMiles Johns

1.78

Strikes / min

3.36

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

49%

Strike defense

65%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.22

45%

Takedown defense

77%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole SmithMiles Johns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Smith(3 fights)Miles Johns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -90.9|Blue +90.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole SmithTargetMiles Johns

By target zone

10% acc · 36%

Head

47% acc · 94%

47% acc · 64%

Body

67% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

17% acc · 82%

Distance

38% acc · 65%

50% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

Ground

80% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Smith rounds

even

Miles Johns rounds

Round 1Cole Smith edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control4:14

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control2:05

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 3Miles Johns edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:13

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 57

Sig Strikes

31 / 65

17.7%

Sig Str %

69.3%

26 / 75

Total Strikes

63 / 104

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 2

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

8:32

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Miles Johns	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0
1	Cole Smith	2 / 6	10 / 14	0 / 3
2	Miles Johns	6 / 9	31 / 40	1 / 1
2	Cole Smith	0 / 6	4 / 12	1 / 1
3	Miles Johns	23 / 54	30 / 62	0 / 1
3	Cole Smith	9 / 45	12 / 49	0 / 2

Cole Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Miles Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11