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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Hunter Azure won · U-DEC

Elo1388

Elo1493

Cole SmithvsHunter AzureUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Saturday, September 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Hunter Azure won

U-DEC

Style matchupCole Smith: Submission grapplervsHunter Azure: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Hunter Azure wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Hunter Azure wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hunter Azure at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hunter Azure has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Smith

Red Corner

Hunter Azure

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1388

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole Smith

oldest →

vs Mitch Gagnon · May 19

vs Miles Johns · Sep 19

latest

Hunter AzureL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brad Katona · Sep 19

KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 20

vs Jack Shore · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole SmithMetricHunter Azure

1.78

Strikes / min

3.92

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

49%

Strike defense

58%

1.67

TDs / 15 min

1.97

45%

Takedown defense

67%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap+1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole SmithHunter Azure

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Smith(3 fights)Hunter Azure(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -104.7|Blue +104.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +242.0|Blue -242.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole SmithTargetHunter Azure

By target zone

37% acc · 52%

Head

67% acc · 69%

32% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 12%

54% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

30% acc · 65%

Distance

69% acc · 57%

63% acc · 16%

Clinch

71% acc · 12%

100% acc · 19%

Ground

93% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Smith rounds

even

Hunter Azure rounds

Round 1Hunter Azure edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:48Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Hunter Azure edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:43

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:29Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:58

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 81

Sig Strikes

42 / 56

42%

Sig Str %

68.3%

69 / 121

Total Strikes

75 / 90

2 / 5

TDs

5 / 8

44.3%

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:13

Ctrl Time

8:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hunter Azure	26 / 29	48 / 51	2 / 3	0
1	Cole Smith	11 / 29	14 / 32	0 / 1	1
2	Hunter Azure	6 / 11	11 / 17	2 / 2	0
2	Cole Smith	11 / 17	31 / 38	1 / 3	0
3	Hunter Azure	10 / 16	16 / 22	1 / 3	0
3	Cole Smith	9 / 35	24 / 51	1 / 1	2

Cole Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Hunter Azure

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4