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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Cole Miller won · SUB R2

Elo1359

Elo1351

Cole MillervsTJ O'BrienUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Cole Miller won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:38

Model Prediction: Cole Miller wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Cole Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cole Miller at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cole Miller threatens submissions; TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cole Miller has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
TJ O'Brien has a 11cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Miller

Red Corner

TJ O'Brien

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1359

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

196 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole MillerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

TJ O'Brien

oldest →

KOvs Paul Kelly · Nov 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole MillerMetricTJ O'Brien

3.00

Strikes / min

3.77

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

59%

Strike defense

57%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.94

38%

Takedown defense

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole MillerTJ O'Brien

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Miller(10 fights)TJ O'Brien(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.7|Blue -7.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole MillerTargetTJ O'Brien

By target zone

29% acc · 53%

Head

26% acc · 39%

50% acc · 3%

Body

80% acc · 14%

93% acc · 44%

Leg

93% acc · 46%

By position

35% acc · 72%

Distance

47% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

90% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Miller rounds

even

TJ O'Brien rounds

Round 1TJ O'Brien edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cole Miller edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:49

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 76

Sig Strikes

28 / 61

45.5%

Sig Str %

41%

36 / 81

Total Strikes

28 / 61

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ O'Brien	23 / 45	23 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Cole Miller	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	TJ O'Brien	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 0	0
2	Cole Miller	16 / 27	20 / 32	0 / 0	2

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

TJ O'Brien

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2