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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steven Siler won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1353

Cole MillervsSteven SilerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Steven Siler won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Steven Siler wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Steven Siler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Siler at +410 American odds

+$410 profit

$510 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Steven Siler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Steven Siler has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Miller

Red Corner

Steven Siler

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1359

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole MillerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

Steven SilerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Apr 13

KOvs Mike Brown · Aug 13

vs Dennis Bermudez · Nov 13

KOvs Rony Jason · Mar 14

vs Noad Lahat · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole MillerMetricSteven Siler

3.00

Strikes / min

3.21

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

59%

Strike defense

54%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.47

38%

Takedown defense

55%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole MillerSteven Siler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Miller(10 fights)Steven Siler(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.4|Blue -5.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +111.0|Blue -111.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole MillerTargetSteven Siler

By target zone

38% acc · 61%

Head

26% acc · 62%

65% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 25%

94% acc · 24%

Leg

92% acc · 14%

By position

42% acc · 75%

Distance

33% acc · 79%

84% acc · 22%

Clinch

61% acc · 21%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Miller rounds

even

Steven Siler rounds

Round 1Steven Siler edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:16

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Steven Siler edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:53

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3Cole Miller edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:35

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 152

Sig Strikes

81 / 221

48.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

77 / 157

Total Strikes

95 / 235

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 6

33.3%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

2:44

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steven Siler	22 / 72	28 / 78	1 / 3	1
1	Cole Miller	22 / 37	22 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Steven Siler	37 / 84	44 / 91	0 / 1	0
2	Cole Miller	24 / 60	25 / 61	0 / 3	0
3	Steven Siler	22 / 65	23 / 66	0 / 2	0
3	Cole Miller	26 / 55	30 / 59	1 / 1	0

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Steven Siler

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9