Featherweight

3 Rounds

Mizuto Hirota won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1369

Cole MillervsMizuto HirotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Mizuto Hirota won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mizuto Hirota wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Mizuto Hirota wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mizuto Hirota at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mizuto Hirota enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Mizuto Hirota has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cole Miller has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Miller

Red Corner

Mizuto Hirota

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1359

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole MillerL2 streak

oldest →

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 13

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

latest

Mizuto HirotaL5 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 13

vs Rodrigo Damm · Jun 13

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jun 17

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 18

vs Christos Giagos · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole MillerMetricMizuto Hirota

3.00

Strikes / min

3.36

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

59%

Strike defense

54%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.36

38%

Takedown defense

58%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole MillerMizuto Hirota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Miller(10 fights)Mizuto Hirota(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.3|Blue +10.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -1092.0|Blue +1092.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole MillerTargetMizuto Hirota

By target zone

25% acc · 52%

Head

45% acc · 75%

56% acc · 24%

Body

64% acc · 12%

71% acc · 24%

Leg

88% acc · 12%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

43% acc · 46%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

57% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Miller rounds

even

Mizuto Hirota rounds

Round 1Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:27Control

Round 2Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:03

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:12Control

Round 3Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 60

Sig Strikes

57 / 114

33.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

22 / 61

Total Strikes

165 / 242

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 7

—

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

9:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mizuto Hirota	23 / 48	47 / 74	4 / 4
1	Cole Miller	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0
2	Mizuto Hirota	16 / 32	58 / 79	1 / 1
2	Cole Miller	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0
3	Mizuto Hirota	18 / 34	60 / 89	1 / 2
3	Cole Miller	7 / 16	8 / 17	0 / 0

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Mizuto Hirota

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6