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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Wiman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1392

Cole MillervsMatt WimanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Matt Wiman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cole Miller wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Matt Wiman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cole Miller at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cole Miller enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Wiman has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cole Miller has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cole Miller

Red Corner

Matt Wiman

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1359

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cole MillerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andy Ogle · Oct 13

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Jan 14

vs Max Holloway · Feb 15

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 16

vs Mizuto Hirota · Dec 16

latest

Matt WimanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cole MillerMetricMatt Wiman

3.00

Strikes / min

3.17

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.57

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

2.13

38%

Takedown defense

56%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.88evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cole MillerMatt Wiman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cole Miller(10 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.6|Blue +33.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -95.0|Blue +95.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cole MillerTargetMatt Wiman

By target zone

25% acc · 45%

Head

42% acc · 82%

92% acc · 55%

Body

50% acc · 1%

Leg

87% acc · 17%

By position

21% acc · 32%

Distance

32% acc · 29%

74% acc · 64%

Clinch

64% acc · 9%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

55% acc · 62%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cole Miller rounds

even

Matt Wiman rounds

Round 1Matt Wiman edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 2Matt Wiman edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:01

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:05Control

Round 3Matt Wiman edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 53

Sig Strikes

76 / 165

40%

Sig Str %

45.7%

60 / 102

Total Strikes

106 / 208

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

10:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Wiman	26 / 61	33 / 73	0 / 0	0
1	Cole Miller	13 / 31	21 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Wiman	26 / 51	32 / 62	1 / 1	0
2	Cole Miller	6 / 14	17 / 28	0 / 0	0
3	Matt Wiman	24 / 53	41 / 73	0 / 0	1
3	Cole Miller	3 / 8	22 / 33	0 / 1	0

Cole Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10